How the Odds Shifted
When the 2025 regular season entered its final week, most analysts still pictured a tight race in the AL Central. The math was close, and Detroit's early‑season surge kept the division feeling wide open. Then, a string of sub‑par performances from the Tigers, combined with the Guardians' steady pitching and timely hitting, flipped the script.
Fangraphs' latest projection, dated September 25, puts the Cleveland Guardians at an 81.1% chance to capture the division—a jump of more than 30 points from a week earlier. That kind of probability typically belongs to teams that have already clinched or are on the verge of doing so. The underlying model cites Cleveland's 9‑2 record over the last eleven games, while Detroit has gone 3‑8 in the same span.
Beyond raw win‑loss records, the model also incorporates run differential, strength of schedule, and bullpen fatigue. The Guardians boast a +1.5 run differential per game over the past month, whereas the Tigers have slipped into a -0.9 average. Those numbers translate into a palpable edge that the odds now reflect.
What Cleveland Needs to Clinch
The division's magic number sits at three. In practical terms, any combination of three wins by Cleveland and losses by Detroit will seal the title. That leaves the Guardians three clear pathways:
- Win their final two games and clinch outright.
- Secure a single victory while Detroit drops one of its last three.
- Rely entirely on Detroit losing two of its remaining contests, even if Cleveland loses both of its own.
Given Cleveland's current form—starting pitchers posting sub‑2.50 ERAs and the bullpen maintaining a collective 3.10 ERA—the first scenario looks most realistic. The team’s offense has also clicked, averaging 5.2 runs per game in September, a notable jump from their 4.1 average earlier in the season.
Detroit's situation is far less forgiving. The Tigers must win all three of their remaining matchups to keep any slim hope alive. Their starting rotation is on a three‑game losing streak, and the bullpen has blown saves in two of their last five appearances. Even a narrow win against a middle‑of‑the‑pack opponent would not be enough; the Guardians would still need to win at least one of their own games to offset the Tigers' progress.
Looking ahead, Cleveland will face the Chicago White Sox in a four‑game series that starts tomorrow. While the White Sox are fighting for a wild‑card spot, they lack the depth to threaten the Guardians' momentum. If Cleveland captures even one of those games, the division essentially wraps up.
For Detroit, the final stretch involves a road trip to the Minnesota Twins followed by a home series against the New York Yankees. Both opponents rank in the top ten for run production, meaning the Tigers will need near‑perfect pitching performances to stay competitive.
This late‑season swing doesn’t just affect the AL Central; it also reshapes the broader American League playoff picture. With Cleveland almost guaranteed a division berth, the wild‑card race now hinges on teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners, whose own fortunes have been influenced by the Central’s realignment.
In short, the Guardians are on the cusp of a division crown that would be their first AL Central title since moving from the East in 1998. All that stands between them and that milestone is a handful of innings, a couple of decisive at‑bats, and a final tally that, according to the numbers, is already tipping in Cleveland's favor.
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