After scraping out a 23-20 overtime win over the Indianapolis Colts on November 23, 2025, the Kansas City Chiefs aren’t celebrating — they’re calculating. With just six games left, their playoff fate isn’t guaranteed. According to Jackson Durham, host of Chiefs Report by Chat Sports, their current 60% chance to make the postseason feels less like comfort and more like a warning. The New York Times NFL playoff simulator and ESPN’s Football Power Index agree: this team is on the edge. And the schedule ahead? Brutal.
The Tightrope Walk: Win Out or Worry
Here’s the cold truth: if the Chiefs win all four of their final games — against the Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, and Titans — their playoff probability spikes to 96%. But Durham calls that scenario "not very likely." Why? Because they’ve already lost to the Broncos and Bills this season. They’re not the invincible dynasty of 2020. They’re a team with flaws, aging stars, and a defense that’s shown cracks under pressure.
Even a single loss changes everything. Lose in Week 13 against Dallas? Still 79% to make it. Lose in Week 14 against Houston? Drops to 68%. Lose in Week 15 against LA? Still 68%. But lose in Week 16 against the winless Titans? That’s when it jumps — to 78%. Why? Because the schedule lightens, and the AFC West race tightens. The Denver Broncos (9-2) are now their biggest hurdle, not just because of record, but because they control the division tiebreaker.
The Remaining Gauntlet
What’s left isn’t a schedule. It’s a gauntlet.
- Week 13 (Nov 27): Away at Dallas Cowboys (6-5-1) — Thanksgiving Day, 4:30 pm ET. Dak Prescott is healthy. The Cowboys are hungry for a division crown.
- Week 14 (Dec 7): Home vs. Houston Texans (6-5) — 8:20 pm ET. A trap game? Maybe. But Houston’s been scrappy, and Arrowhead isn’t the fortress it once was.
- Week 15 (Dec 14): Home vs. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) — 1:00 pm ET. Justin Herbert is playing like an MVP candidate. This one could decide home-field advantage.
- Week 16 (Dec 21): Away at Tennessee Titans (1-10) — 1:00 pm ET. The easy win? Maybe. But remember: the Chiefs lost to the 2-9 Raiders in October.
- Week 17 (Dec 25): Home vs. Denver Broncos (9-2) — Christmas Eve, 8:15 pm ET. The game that could end their season. Or define it.
- Week 18 (Jan 4): Away at Las Vegas Raiders (2-9) — Time TBD. A meaningless game? Only if they’ve already clinched.
They’ve beaten the 2-9 Raiders 31-0 earlier this year. But that was before the Raiders fired their coach and found a spark. Now they’re playing for pride — and draft position. Don’t sleep on them.
What the Fans Are Saying
Arrowhead Pride, the independent fan site operated by SB Nation out of Detroit, put it bluntly: "Missing the postseason is a real possibility." That’s not panic. It’s realism. The AFC is stacked. The Bills, Ravens, and Dolphins are all above .500. The Chiefs are currently sixth in the conference. One loss, and they could fall out of the top seven — and into the wild-card scramble.
"We’ve seen this before," said one longtime fan on Reddit, referencing the 2020 season when the Chiefs barely made it as a 10-6 wildcard. "But back then, we had Mahomes at 100%. Now? He’s playing through ankle pain. The offensive line is patchwork. The secondary is guessing more than covering. This isn’t the same team. And the league knows it."
Why This Matters Beyond Kansas City
The Chiefs aren’t just fighting for a playoff spot. They’re fighting for legacy. If they miss the postseason for the first time since 2017, it ends a 7-year streak of playoff appearances — the longest in franchise history. It also raises questions: Is Andy Reid’s magic fading? Is Patrick Mahomes’ window closing? Are we watching the end of an era?
And it’s not just emotional. It’s financial. Playoff games mean millions in revenue — ticket sales, merchandise, local TV rights. For a city that lives and breathes football, a missed postseason isn’t just a disappointment. It’s a cultural letdown.
What’s Next? The Clock Is Ticking
Thursday night in Dallas is the true test. Win, and the Chiefs stay alive with momentum. Lose, and the pressure skyrockets. The Broncos game on Christmas Eve will be a de facto playoff game. If the Chiefs are 8-7 going into that matchup, the entire AFC West could be decided in one night.
For now, the numbers say they’re still in. But numbers don’t play football. Players do. And the Chiefs’ roster, for the first time in years, looks vulnerable.
Frequently Asked Questions
What’s the worst-case scenario for the Chiefs’ playoff chances?
The worst-case scenario is losing to Dallas, Houston, and LA in Weeks 13-15, then splitting the final two games. That leaves them at 9-8, tied with the Chargers and Texans. Without tiebreakers in their favor, they’d likely miss the playoffs despite a winning record — something that hasn’t happened since 2017. The AFC’s depth means even 9 wins might not be enough.
How does the Denver Broncos’ record affect the Chiefs’ path?
The Broncos hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs after winning 22-19 in Week 11. That means if both teams finish 10-7, Denver gets the AFC West title and the No. 3 seed. The Chiefs would then need to win the wild-card race — a tougher path with multiple teams at 9-8 or better. Winning the division is their safest route.
Why does losing in Week 16 improve playoff odds compared to Week 14?
Because the New York Times simulator factors in remaining opponents’ strength. Losing to the winless Titans in Week 16 means you’ve already played the toughest part of your schedule. The final game is against the Raiders, who are tanking. Winning out after a Week 16 loss is more likely than winning after a Week 14 loss to a 6-5 team like Houston, followed by two tougher games.
Has any team with a 7-5 record after 12 games missed the playoffs in recent years?
Yes. In 2022, the Tennessee Titans were 7-5 after Week 12 but finished 9-8 and missed the playoffs. In 2020, the New Orleans Saints were 8-4 after 12 games and still barely squeaked in as a wild card. The NFL’s parity means no record is safe. The Chiefs’ 7-5 record is average for a playoff contender — not a guarantee.
What role does Patrick Mahomes’ health play in their playoff chances?
It’s everything. Mahomes has been playing through a high-ankle sprain since Week 9. His mobility is reduced, and his deep-ball accuracy has dipped. In the 2023 playoffs, he missed two games with a similar injury — and the Chiefs lost both. If he’s not 100% against Dallas or Denver, their offense stalls. No other QB in the league can carry this team like he can.
Is the NFL’s playoff format helping or hurting the Chiefs?
It’s hurting. With 7 teams making the playoffs per conference, you’d think it’s easier. But the AFC has five teams (Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, Chiefs, Chargers) with 7+ wins all fighting for 3 spots. The division winners get automatic berths, but the Chiefs are behind Denver. That means they’re now in a wild-card dogfight with teams that have better records — and better tiebreakers.
Write a comment